February 25, 2020

Rising wages also mean corporate profit margins will be squeezed gradually

685 per cent. And it seems as though there are still some people who haven’t run away (from the sell-off) yet.Yoshinori Shigemi, market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the spectre of inflation will gradually undermine the attraction of equities even though the markets could rebound in the short term. I think we are pretty close.017 per cent from 5.6 per cent."Where does the market rout end? 


I think we are pretty close to a selling climax here.Both the indices had been reeling under the long-term capital gains tax of 10 per cent on stock market gains exceeding Rs 1 lakh since the Union Budget.6 percent, suffering their biggest percentage drops since August 2011 as a long-awaited pullback from record highs deepened.964 per cent at the end of last week. The benchmark BSE Sensex opened 1,213.02.0 per cent.

Fed fund futures are now pricing in only two rate hikes this year.The 10-year US Treasuries yield rose to as high as 2. The fundamentals are pretty good.2538 by late last month.Japan’s Nikkei tumbled as much as 5.6 per cent while Taiwan shares lost 5.5 percent fall from its record high of USD 19,666, touched on Dec.00 points lower at 10,290.The rout came after US stocks plunged in highly volatile trading on Monday, with the Dow industrials falling nearly 1,600 points during the session, its biggest intraday decline in history, as investors grappled with rising bond yields and potentially higher inflation.65 points lower at 33,543. The only thing that is really different is that bond yields got up to 2.European shares also tumbled on Monday, with Germany’s Dax hitting a 4-month low.50.Australian shares dropped 3.”

The benchmark S&P 500 slumped 4.Sentiment also took a hit after the fiscal deficit target for 2017-18 was raised to 3.8 per cent in Asia."In the end, the Fed will have to hike rates.69 yen, after having lost one percent on Monday.3 percent at one point. And if it doesn‘t, long-dated bonds will be sold off on worries about inflation."Their leveraged position is now being unwound. But the tide seems to have changed,” said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. 

Rising wages also mean corporate profit margins will be squeezed gradually down the road,” he said."For the last several months, whether it’s stocks or commodities, risk-takers had been the winners. The benchmark BSE Sensex opened 1,213. Either way, that is going to slow down the economy.Also read: Wall China granulation screw barrels Suppliers Street crashes, Dow ends nearly 1,200 pts down, S&P erases 2018’s gainsMSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 3.Before Monday’s fall, the index had not seen a pullback of more than 5 per cent for more than 400 sessions, which analysts said was the longest such streak in history. (Photo: File) Mumbai/Tokyo: Both Sensex and Nifty made a nosedive in pre-opening sessions on Tuesday, a day after Wall Street’s record-breaking Monday loss.885 per cent on Monday, its highest in four years and 47 basis points above the 2. 

And that’s what hedge funds, which now manage $3.But a massive fall in share prices prompted an about-turn, and in Asian trade on Tuesday, it fell back to as low as 2.Against the yen, which is often used as a safe-haven currency because of Japan’s solid current account surplus, the USD slipped 0.1 percent and the Dow 4.8 per cent.20 and Nifty traded 376. 17..Oil prices also dropped, with international benchmark Brent futures hitting a one-month low of USD 66.90 per barrel on Monday.5 per cent to nearly four-month lows in Asia, extending their losses from the record peak hit just over a week ago to almost 12 per cent. It last stood at USD 67.Asian shares and US stock futures sank on Tuesday, after Wall Street suffered its biggest decline since 2011. The speed at which we are doing it is not normal,” said Michael Purves, chief global strategist at Weeden & Co in New York.71, its highest since August 2015.2358, not far from last week’s low of USD 1.Asian shares and US stock futures sank on Tuesday, after Wall Street suffered its biggest decline since 2011 as investors’ faith in factors underpinning a bull run in markets began to crumble.65 points lower at 33,543.

The trigger for the sell-off was a sharp rise in US bond yields following Friday’s data that showed US wages increasing at the fastest pace since 2009, raising the alarm about higher inflation and with it potentially higher interest rates.US crude futures traded at USD 63.2335, a break of which could usher in a further correction after its rally to a 3-year high of USD 1.411 per cent seen at the end of 2017. I would expect more instability,” he added."The amount of the sell-off that we are seeing is normal.S&P mini futures fell as much as 2.50 on Tuesday.The CBOE Volatility index, the closely followed "fear-index” measure of expected near-term stock market volatility jumped 20 points to 30.Bitcoin was not spared from selling, hitting a 12-week low of USD 6,400.Still, it was far below its 2016 peak just above 10 per cent, when low oil prices hurt energy firms.00 points lower at 10,290.2 per cent earlier.Investors also dumped junk bonds, with the yield of Merrill Lynch US high yield index rising to 6."Since last autumn, investors had been betting on the goldilocks economy - solid economic expansion, improving corporate earnings and stable inflation.The euro eased to $1.3 per cent to 108.5 per cent to a one-month low, which would be its biggest fall in more than a year and a half, a day after it had fallen 1. 

That represented a 67.0 per cent to their lowest since October while South Korean shares fell 3.2 trillion, have been doing,” Mitsubishi UFJ’s Fujito said.20 and Nifty traded 376.5 per cent of GDP as against 3.Keen to avoid further risk, investors are closing their positions in other assets, including the currency market where a popular strategy has been to sell the USD against the euro and other currencies seen as benefiting from higher interest rates in the future.56 per barrel, down 0

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February 19, 2020

It was indeed a question of market perception rather than economic rationality

46 per barrel), 2012 ($109. Everyone, and Saudi Arabia much more than the others, was acutely feeling the pinch of falling oil revenues. No alternative market of rising demand has been discovered.45), 2013 ($105. Iran pumping crude into the oil market has created problems at a time when demand was low and sluggish because of the continuing economic recession in the eurozone and in North America.Market analysts are, however, coy about speaking on the big-picture state of the world economy.


The moot question on oil prices is that it has to be less arbitrary than it has been so far.6 billion in 2014-15 to $29. And it has to reflect the pull and push of general economic trends.1 billion in 2015-16. Meanwhile, there is a compelling need on the part of the oil-producing countries to maintain a reasonable price band to maintain stability for themselves as well as for the rest of the world. It was a windfall for the Modi government. This was an unprecedented measure. According to ministry of petroleum and natural gas figures, India has imported 202.It seems that the influential cartel of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has at last managed to break out of the gridlock of production glut and declining prices. It is a call that the Arab governments need to take for themselves.98 in May 2016.87), when the world economy was experiencing the tailspin of the global recession. If demand does not pick up due to persistent low economic growth in advanced economies, will the reduction in oil production help in increasing export revenue There are very faint signals of revival in the Western economies. 

There was a time in 1997 when Opec felt oil prices should operate within a certain band, and that it should not fall too low nor should it rise too high. It seems that the influential cartel of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has at last managed to break out of the gridlock of production glut and declining prices. There was an irrational surge in crude oil prices in 2011 ($107. At its meeting in Algiers on Thursday, Saudi Arabia, the country with the largest production and market share, had agreed to cut its output after resisting it for more than a year. As a matter of fact, India’s oil import bill has been falling, though the quantum of oil imported had increased.4 million tonnes in 2014-15.7 billion it had paid for 189. As the oil import bill is higher, a lower price is preferable. 

It was forced to cancel bonus payments to government employees, and cut the salaries of ministers by 20 per cent and of members of the Shura, its consultative council, by 15 per cent.1 million tonnes for $64 billion in 2015-16 compared to $112. Problems perhaps could have been avoided if there was rational pricing in these years. Speculation in oil prices, which is not much talked about in trade circles, seemed to have caused much harm. Though the details have to be worked out as to how much each of the 14 member-countries would reduce, it is clear that the large chunk of reduction would have to happen with Saudi Arabia.It has been a happy, or uncanny, depending on the point of view, coincidence that ever since the Narendra Modi government came to power in May 2014, international oil prices have been falling steadily.As an emerging market economy, India’s stakes in the oil market are double-edged. 

The need to do something to push crude prices up was compelling. While the debate would continue even as economists and statisticians do their number-crunching, there is one fact that stands out.The author is a Delhi-based commentator and analyst.50 in May 2015 to $45. Of course, there is the gratuitous advice offered to Opec members, especially Gulf Arab countries, that they need to diversify their economies and they should not remain a single-commodity setup. India’s petroleum product exports fell from conical twin screw barrels Suppliers $56. Saudi leaders held that if they were to cut back on production, Iran, its main rival in the region, would establish its dominance, and it would be difficult for Saudi Arabia to clutch its way back into the top slot. It stands to gain from low crude oil prices as well as from an increase in prices. The Opec members seem to have realised that stubbornly holding on to the status quo would not help and that it was not the way to move forward.73 in May 2014 to $62. China, Japan and India, three of the largest Asian economies, are not clocking growth rates that would stimulate greater consumption of crude oil. 

It was indeed a question of market perception rather than economic rationality, but the markets do not exactly work on the neat demand-supply equilibrium.It is, of course, futile to blame the manipulation of crude oil prices by the manipulators in Western markets. The reason for the continuing oversupply of production has been because of the coming out of Iran after the United Nations economic sanctions ended as a result of a deal with regard to its nuclear programme was worked out. Opec needs to evolve its own rationale for pricing. There are differing views whether the low prices were passed on to the end-user, whether the oil marketing companies have made good their liabilities, and whether the economy as a whole benefited from it. The wild swings would cause problems not only for the consumers in the rest of the world, specially in the emerging and developing economies, but it would also destabilise the domestic economies of the Opec members themselves. It has to be noted that the speculation happens in Western oil markets rather than in oil-producing countries. Opec is in control of the production output, but there is not much it can do about price fluctuations, which tend to swing from bubble to bust. The price per barrel slid from $105. Lower oil prices had a negative impact on India’s petroleum product exports

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